生態農業：氣候變遷下森林碳匯與生態經濟評估【森林學系/柳婉郁特聘教授】
| 論文篇名 | 英文：Assessing the Incentives and Financial Compensation of Agroforestry Considering the Uncertainty of Price and Yield 中文：考量價格與產量不確定下混農林經濟誘因與補償之評估 |
| 期刊名稱 | Ecological Indicator |
| 發表年份,卷數,起迄頁數 | 2023 246: 123328 |
| 作者 | Liu, Wan -Yu(柳婉郁)*; Chuang, Yi-Lin |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109753 |
| 中文摘要 | 本研究旨在考慮三種土地利用方案，在有或沒有政策支持的情況下，考量價格和產量不確定分析生態系統服務和經濟補償。首先，使用蒙特卡羅模擬計算年收入、淨現值、年金以及不同風險趨避程度之PES，進而分析經濟補償金額。本研究以Harry Markowitz理論為基礎，評估單一類型作物種植轉為多種作物種植經濟補償。結果顯示，不同風險趨避程度之農民接受經濟補償為水稻657-2,134美元/年，玉米667-2,955美元/年。風險趨避程度較高的農民願意接受較低的經濟補償。 |
| 英文摘要 | Factors such as invasive species, agricultural expansion, and climate change have resulted in global biodiversity loss. When engaging in agricultural expansion, private landowners often choose to plant crops with higher returns than forests provide. However, planting crops leads to the land with low plant coverage, negatively affecting the ecology and reduce biodiversity. Therefore, agroforestry has been one of the recent agricultural policy measures to induce the ecological benefits of farmlands. This study aims to access the payments for ecosystem services (PESs) and economic compensation for agroforestry considering three land use options (i.e., planting rice, corn, and the Taiwan Acacia) under the uncertainty of price and yield with and without support policies. Firstly, the estimated frequency distribution was generated by using the Monte Carlo simulation; then annual income, net present value, annuity, and the PESs at various levels of risk aversion (i.e., strong, moderate, and none) were calculated; and finally, the amounts of economic compensation were assessed. On the basis of Harry Markowitz’s modern portfolio theory, this study evaluated the economic compensation for converting planting a single-type crop to a portfolio of rice, corn, and the Taiwan Acacia; and determined their optimal weights with the minimal risk. The results showed that for farmers with different risk aversion levels, the minimum willingness to accept for economic compensation is approximately $ 657–2,134 ha/yr for rice and $ 667–2,955 ha/yr for corn. The farmers with higher risk aversion are willing to accept lower economic compensation. Regarding the portfolio, farmers with strong risk aversion had incentives to plant trees on less than 15 % of their land, and could receive up to $1,641 as the percentage increased; and farmers with a lower initial investment in the land had more incentives to plant trees. |
| 發表成果與本中心研究主題之相關性 | 符合研究主題：生態農業。 農業包括農林漁牧，而因應氣候變遷林業領域如何調適、如何建構韌性林業，為一大值得關注之議題。 |
