生態農業：農業地景生態監測及復育【森林學系/柳婉郁特聘教授】
| 論文篇名 | 英文：The Impacts of Different Climate Change Scenarios on Visits toward the National Forest Park in Taiwan 中文：不同氣候變遷情境對遊客人數之影響 |
| 期刊名稱 | Forests |
| 發表年份,卷數,起迄頁數 | 2020, 11, no.1203 |
| 作者 | Liu, Wan-Yu(柳婉郁); Huang, Yen-Hsiang; Hsieh, Chi-Ming* |
| DOI | 10.3390/f11111203 |
| 中文摘要 | 許多研究顯示，天氣和遊客間存在極大的關係。了解不同氣候因子與氣候變遷，如何影響不同旅遊季節(旺季、次旺季、淡季)的遊客人數，能幫助園區規畫者和管理者，並能更清楚分析人為導致的全球氣候變遷下的機會和風險。本研究主要透過相當可貴的遊客數量日資料及天氣日資料，將一年12個月依照遊客數量多寡，分成三個旅遊季節：旺季(2、7、8、10月)、次旺季(1、4、5、11、12月)、淡季(3、6、9月)，運用天氣因子及虛擬變數(如周末與否)等，建立三個預測遊客人數(人次/日)的多元迴歸模型，利用當日天氣資料、周末與否等變數，預測每日遊客數量，協助園區管理者制定相關決策。其次，本研究將評估氣候變遷對遊客人數之影響，運用IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)第五次評估報告中「代表濃度途徑(Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs)」(濃度的變化歷程)定義氣候變遷的可能情境進行分析。本研究結果指出，旺季與淡季之氣候因子對遊客人數之影響程度相同，氣溫變數及相對濕度變數對遊客人數皆有顯著影響，降水量變數為不顯著；次旺季中僅氣溫變數對遊客人數有顯著影響，相對濕度變數及降水量變數不顯著。而氣溫變數在三季中都是最具影響力的變數，其影響力為：旺季>淡季>次旺季，另外。各種氣候變遷的情境(RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0、RCP8.5)分析，惠蓀林場的遊客人數皆是呈現上升的趨勢本研究之研究成果能提供給森林遊樂區經營者及後續研究者參考 |
| 英文摘要 | Many studies have shown that the weather greatly affects the tourist count. Understanding weather information, climate change, and how they influence the tourist count in different tourist seasons (peak season, second peak season, off season) can help park planners and managers to analyze the opportunities and risks caused by climate change. This study aimed to predict the visitor count through information on the number of visitors and the weather day for three tourist seasons in a 12-month period. The study was conducted in the Huisun Forest Park of Taiwan based on the peak season (February, July, August, and October), the second peak season (January, April, May, November, and December), and the off-season (March, June, and September), using weather factors and virtual factors (such as whether it is a weekend or not) to establish three multivariate regression models for predicting the daily visitor count. This study assessed the impact of climate change on the visitor count and analyzed possible scenarios of climate change using representative concentration pathways (RCPs), as stated in the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results of this study indicated that the impacts of weather factors on the visitor count is the same for the peak season and the off season. The temperature and relative humidity have a significant impact on the visitor count, and precipitation is not significant. In the second peak season, only the temperature has a significant impact on the visitor count. The relative humidity and precipitation are not significant. The temperature is the most influential factor in all three seasons, and has the highest influence on the peak season, followed by the low season, and then the second peak season. In addition, the number of visitors in Huisun Forest Park is on the rise, according to an analysis of various climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). The results of this study can be used as a reference by forest park managers and future researchers. It is noted that the results were based on the current economic and political situation. The worsening of the entire world situation could break the relationships |
| 發表成果與本中心研究主題之相關性 | 符合研究主題：生態農業。 農業包括農林漁牧，研究生態旅遊如何因應氣候變遷相當重要，本研究主要探討氣候變遷下對於遊客人數之影響，此為目前國際相當關注之議題。 |
