生態農業：農業地景生態監測及復育【森林學系/柳婉郁特聘教授】
| 論文篇名 | 英文：Analyzing Direct and Indirect Effects of Climate Change Trend on the Number of Visitors toward National Forest Parks: A Case of Taiwan 中文：氣候變遷對遊客人數之直接與間接效果評估 |
| 期刊名稱 | Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, |
| 發表年份,卷數,起迄頁數 | 2021, 48, 10-22 |
| 作者 | Liu, Wan-Yu(柳婉郁); Huang, Yen-Hsiang; Lin, Chun-Cheng* |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jhtm.2021.05.005 |
| 中文摘要 | 近年研究指出，氣候與遊客人數間具有密切關係。了解氣候因子與氣候變遷將如何對園區遊客人數造成影響，將可以幫助園區管理者制訂園區在氣候變遷下的應變措施。本研究將探討氣候變遷對遊客人數的直接與間接影響，氣候變遷的直接影響為氣候因子直接影響旅遊季節之氣候，本研究使用惠蓀國家森林遊樂區提供之每月遊客人數及每月氣候資料，並將一年依照遊客人數分為旺季與淡季，以建立2個多元迴歸模型，並使用科技部網頁所提供之未來四種全球暖化情境下2020年至2100年每月氣溫及降水量資料，用來模擬未來之氣候變遷情境並利用迴歸模型檢視其遊客變化量。氣候變遷的間接影響為氣候變化影響旅遊地區之環境與景觀，本研究設計問卷調查遊客在樂觀、普通及悲觀的氣候變遷情境下，遊客的再遊意願、頻率變化及在氣候變遷下園區內最在意之變化，並以三者對其社經背景進行卡方檢定分析，檢視三者在不同社經背景間是否有顯著差異。最後本研究綜合評估氣候變遷對遊客人數的直接與間接影響，結果可提供園區管理者與後續研究者參考。 |
| 英文摘要 | Climatic factors and global warming have great impacts on the tourists’ behaviors. The goal of this study is to explore how they affect the number of visitors and the Huisun National Forest Park (HNFP) in Taiwan was selected as the research site. This study comprehensively evaluated the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the number of visitors. Regression models were built to examine variations in the number of visitors, including potential future climate scenarios in four global warming scenarios, and questionnaire survey was conducted to investigate tourists’ behaviors. The majority of the respondents were male, aged 17–24 years, and students with an educational level of (junior) college. The results show that climate change may not decrease on the number of visitors to HNFP if only temperature and precipitation variations are considered. The climate-induced factors also have less effects on the travel intention for the tourists who have not visited. The visitors were most concerned about landscape transformation under climate change. Therefore, the managers should pay more attention to the conservation and maintenance of the area’s landscapes to avoid reduced revisit intention and frequency. Since the number of visitors is expected to increase, the HNFP managers need to modify the policies accordingly. The outcomes can be used for developing strategies in response to climate change. |
| 發表成果與本中心研究主題之相關性 | 符合研究主題：生態農業。 農業包括農林漁牧，而因應氣候變遷，生態旅遊如何調適、如何建構韌性生態旅遊，為一大值得關注之議題。 |
