Ecological Agriculture: Development of Precision Cultivation and Management Technology【Department of Agronomy / Kuo, Bo-Jein / Professor】
生態農業：農業精準栽培管理技術開發【農藝學系郭寶錚教授】
論文篇名 Incorporating the field border effect to reduce the predicted uncertainty of pollen dispersal model in Asia
期刊名稱 SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
發表年份,卷數,起迄頁數 2021, 11, 22187
作者 Su, Yuan-Chih; Lee, Cheng-Bin; Yiu, Tien-Joung; Kuo, Bo-Jein(郭寶錚)*
DOI 10.1038/s41598-021-01583-x
中文摘要
  1. 貝氏方法被利用於參數的估計並提供良好的預測與其不確定性。
  2. 使用加入田區邊界效應的飄散模式中降低了預測之不確定性。
英文摘要 The presence of the field border (FB), such as roadways or unplanted areas, between two fields is common in Asian farming system. This study evaluated the effect of the FB on the cross-pollination (CP) and predicted the CP rate in the field considering and not considering FB. Three experiments including 0, 6.75, and 7.5 m width of the FB respectively were conducted to investigate the effect of distance and the FB on the CP rate. The dispersal models combined kernel and observation model by calculating the parameter of observation model from the output of kernel. These models were employed to predict the CP rate at different distances. The Bayesian method was used to estimate parameters and provided a good prediction with uncertainty. The highest average CP rates in the field with and without FB were 74.29% and 36.12%, respectively. It was found that two dispersal models with the FB effect displayed a higher ability to predict average CP rates. The correlation coefficients between actual CP rates and CP rates predicted by the dispersal model combined zero-inflated Poisson observation model with compound exponential kernel and modified Cauchy kernel were 0.834 and 0.833, respectively. Furthermore, the predictive uncertainty was reducing using the dispersal models with the FB effect.
發表成果與本中心研究主題相關性 加入田間邊界效應以降低花粉飄散，可達到永續農業創新發展之目的。