【學術亮點】Do Fire Weather Conditions Significantly Affect Wildfires in Subtropical Forests in Taiwan?
Ecological Agriculture: Assessment of Forest Carbon Sink and Ecological Economy under Climate Change【 Department of Forestry / Liu, Wan-Yu / Distinguished Professor】
生態農業：氣候變遷下森林碳匯與生態經濟評估【森林學系/柳婉郁特聘教授】
| 論文篇名 | 英文：Do Fire Weather Conditions Significantly Affect Wildfires in Subtropical Forests in Taiwan? 中文：火災天氣條件對台灣亞熱帶森林野火之影響 |
| 期刊名稱 | Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology |
| 發表年份, 卷數,起迄頁數 | 2025, 64(2): 165–184 |
| 作者 | Yu, Hong-wen; Wang, S. -y. simon; Liu, Wan-yu(柳婉郁)* |
| DOI | 10.1175/JAMC-D-24-0031.1 |
| 中文摘要 | 過去台灣於2002年建立台灣森林火災風險等級預警系統，但其僅依據地面可燃物乾燥度的考量與評估，導致森林火災實際發生與系統偵測火災風險之間存在差距。近年來由於氣候暖化與野火發生頻率呈現上升趨勢，本研究運用氣象重分析資料與衛星資料分析影響與導致野火發生的氣象條件；本研究建構相關係數矩陣和廣義加性模型 (GAM)探討 58 年間(1964-2021 年)區域火災季節野火發生的年際變異與各種火災相關指標(包括氣象條件、植被、土壤濕度以及以火災天氣指數 (FWI) 為代表的綜合指標)之間的關聯。研究發現降水和濕度是台灣野火風險上升的主要氣候影響因素。具體而言，夏秋季節的持續乾旱會加劇燃料乾燥度、消耗地下水並破壞植被，增加野火發生的可能性。此外，西南地區野火與 12 個月前的地下水之間存在顯著的負相關關係，其顯示乾旱事件之前的燃料可燃性和可用性會增加大面積野火發生的可能性。本研究發現由於近一年前開始的乾旱而導致野火數量顯著增加之趨勢，並顯示季節性預測應用的可行性。 |
| 英文摘要 | The previous establishment of Taiwan’s Forest Fire Danger Rating Warning System in 2002 relied solely on ground-based fuel aridity considerations, leaving a gap between fire weather information and fire detection. In view of the warming climate and the increasing trend in wildfire frequency, this study analyzes meteorological conditions that promote wildfire occurrence using modern atmospheric reanalysis and satellite data. Correlation coefficient matrix and generalized additive models (GAMs) were constructed to investigate the associations between the interannual variance of wildfire occurrence during regional fire seasons over a 58-yr period (1964–2021) and various fire-related indices, including meteorological conditions, vegetation, soil moisture, and collective indicators represented by the fire weather index (FWI). The study finds that precipitation and humidity, rather than temperature, are the primary climatic drivers of increased wildfire risk in Taiwan. Specifically, prolonged droughts during the summer and fall enhance fuel aridity, deplete groundwater, and deteriorate vegetation, subsequently increasing wildfire probability. Furthermore, a significant inverse relationship between southwestern wildfires and antecedent groundwater 12 months prior suggests that fuel flammability and availability preceding drought events compound the likelihood of widespread wildfires. This study highlights a robust tendency toward increased wildfires in response to drought starting almost a year before, suggesting the feasibility of seasonal prediction application. |
| 發表成果與本中心研究主題相關性 | 此研究與永續農業中心研究主題之淨零碳排與農林碳匯、碳排放、氣候變遷密切相關。 |
