【學術亮點】Strategic decision-making in wildfire risk management: Risk attitudes, strategy shifts, and policy implications in Taiwan
Ecological Agriculture: Assessment of Forest Carbon Sink and Ecological Economy under Climate Change【 Department of Forestry / Liu, Wan-Yu / Distinguished Professor】
生態農業：氣候變遷下森林碳匯與生態經濟評估【森林學系/柳婉郁特聘教授】
| 論文篇名 | 英文：Strategic decision-making in wildfire risk management: Risk attitudes, strategy shifts, and policy implications in Taiwan 中文：野火風險管理的策略決策：台灣的風險態度、策略轉變與政策影響 |
| 期刊名稱 | International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction |
| 發表年份, 卷數,起迄頁數 | 2025, 128, no. 105706 |
| 作者 | Yu, Hong Wen; Liu, Wan Yu(柳婉郁)* |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105706 |
| 中文摘要 | 氣候變遷下，野火對生態系與社會的風險日益提升。儘管臺灣屬於濕潤的亞熱帶氣候，野火脆弱性卻持續上升，顯示急需針對其管理策略進行研究。本研究利用 2004 至 2023 年之野火應對紀錄及離散選擇實驗(Discrete Choice Experiment, DCE)問卷調查，探討臺灣野火應對機制的演進與決策過程。研究結果顯示，策略已顯著轉向全面撲滅(Full Suppression, FS)策略，其特點為增加單位火災面積的人員部署，並縮短撲滅時間。決策在面臨多重屬性權衡時，表現出普遍的風險規避態度和非線性機率加權。台灣野火管理者通常偏好優先考慮穩定性，並致力於降低結果變異性的撲滅策略，即使此舉無法實現整體效益的最大化。這種行為反應資源配置上的不均，傾向於投入高度顯著但機率較低災難性事件之緩解，而非著重於優化整體風險與效益結果。策略調適的潛力展現於荒野集水區風險規避程度的降低，並且相較於環境資源損失，更將人員安全視為首要關注(於每1000起野火事件中，願意支付新台幣169萬元以避免一人傷亡)。本研究為臺灣及類似地區的野火管理提供關鍵見解，顯示在氣候變遷情境下進行策略性調適的方向。然而，樣本代表性與跨區域適用性仍有待進一步探討。 |
| 英文摘要 | Wildfires pose escalating risks to ecosystems and societies under climate change. Despite its humid subtropical climate, Taiwan has experienced rising wildfire vulnerability, necessitating research into management strategies. This study examines Taiwan's wildfire response evolution and decision-making processes using two decades of response records (2004–2023) and discrete choice experiment (DCE) surveys. Analysis revealed significant shifts towards Full Suppression (FS) strategies, characterized by increased personnel deployments per area burned and shortened containment times. Decision-making demonstrates prevailing risk-averse attitudes and non-linear probability weighting when confronting multi-attribute trade-offs. Taiwanese wildfire managers typically favor suppression strategies prioritizing stability and minimizing outcome variability, even when failing to maximize overall benefits. This behavior demonstrates disproportionate resource allocation toward mitigating highly salient, low-probability catastrophic events rather than optimizing overall risk-benefit outcomes. Strategic adaptation potential were evidenced through reduced risk aversion in wilderness catchment areas and paramount concern for personnel safety (willingness-to-pay NT $1.69 million to prevent one casualty per 1000 wildfire events) compared to losses of environmental resource. This research provides crucial insights for wildfire management in Taiwan and analogous regions, highlighting opportunities for strategic adaptation under changing climate conditions, though sample representativeness and cross-regional generalizability warrant further investigation. |
| 發表成果與本中心研究主題相關性 | 此研究與永續農業中心研究主題之淨零碳排與森林碳匯、氣候變遷密切相關。 |
