生態農業：氣候變遷下森林碳匯與生態經濟評估【森林學系/柳婉郁特聘教授】
| 論文篇名 | 英文：Estimating Wildfire Potential in Taiwan Under Different Climate Change Scenarios 中文：估算不同氣候變遷情境下台灣的野火潛力 |
| 期刊名稱 | Climatic Change |
| 發表年份,卷數,起迄頁數 | 2024; 177(1): 13 |
| 作者 | Yu, Hong Wen; Wang, S. Y. Simon; Liu, Wan Yu(柳婉郁)* |
| DOI | 10.1007/s10584-023-03669-z |
| 中文摘要 | 我們的研究結果顯示，台灣歷史氣溫和風速呈現顯著上升趨勢，伴隨著降雨和濕度變化的增加，其交替導致野火風險顯著增加。值得注意的是，台灣的山火更受到乾燥程度的影響，而不是極端高溫的影響。與近年來平均野火發生次數的基線（1992-2021）相比，在RCP8.5情境下，二十一世紀末（2070-2099）的預期增幅約為35.6%。預計台灣西南地區和東北地區火災季節的山火潛力將分別增加51.8%至90.6%和40.0%至50.0%。相反，在 RCP2.6 情境下，野火發生率預計將減少約 12.2%，這表明減少全球暖化可能會減輕野火可能性的增加。 |
| 英文摘要 | Our findings reveal a significant upward trend in historical temperature and wind speed in Taiwan, accompanied by increased variability in rainfall and humidity, and the alternation of which has resulted in a significant increase in wildfire risk. Notably, wildfires in Taiwan are found to be more influenced by the degree of dryness rather than extreme high temperatures. When compared to the baseline of the average wildfire occurrences in recent years (1992–2021), the projected increase in the late twenty-first century (2070–2099) is approximately 35.6% under the RCP8.5 scenario. The wildfire potential during the fire seasons in the southwest and northeast regions of Taiwan is projected to experience an increase of 51.8–90.6% and 40.0–50.0%, respectively. Conversely, wildfire occurrences are projected to decrease by about 12.2% under the RCP2.6 scenario, suggesting that reducing global warming could potentially mitigate the enhanced wildfire potential. |
| 發表成果與本中心研究主題相關性 | 此研究與永續農業中心研究主題之淨零碳排與農林碳匯密切相關。 |
